Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently marginally stronger than ERA5 average and is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 0 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-11-11T00:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 35.%. The SSW probability in ECEPS is: 44%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 21.6 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 11.9 m/s 2006 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 29.3 m/s 2018