Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently stronger than ERA5 average but is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 15 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-10-02T00:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 10.7 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 4.1 m/s 2014 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 11.4 m/s 2023