Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently stronger than ERA5 average but is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 4 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-02-18 12:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 3%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 27.9 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -18.5 m/s 2009 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 53.1 m/s 1988