Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average but is forecasted to become stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean) 19 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-03-03 12:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 3%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 19.9 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -17.4 m/s 2018 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 62.4 m/s 1988