Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to GEFS-mean) 3 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2025-11-29 18:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 16%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 20.0 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 7.5 m/s 2009 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 43.6 m/s 2012