Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently stronger than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean) 28 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-09-22T00:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 6.1 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 1.3 m/s 2025 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 6.4 m/s 2000