Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently marginally stronger than ERA5 average and is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 6 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-10-09T12:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 11.4 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 6.8 m/s 2014 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 15.0 m/s 2004