Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to GEFS-mean) 0 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-11-15T00:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 94.%. The SSW probability in ECEPS is: 62%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 13.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 11.0 m/s 2016 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 33.7 m/s 1990 . (Only 1979-2025 included in this ERA5-dataset)