Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently stronger than ERA5 average but is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 6 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-02-22 12:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 6%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 26.0 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -10.9 m/s 1987 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 58.0 m/s 1988