Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently marginally weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to become stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean) 30 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-09-15T18:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 2.1 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -0.2 m/s 2019 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 3.7 m/s 1994