Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to GEFS-mean) 6 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-04-18T06:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 97%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 4.0 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -20.0 m/s 2025 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 31.9 m/s 1997